IPRC - 2018
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/19163
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Item A Statistical Approach to Define Thresholds for Dengue Epidemic Management in Akurana Medical Officer of Health Area, Kandy District of Sri Lanka(19th Conference on Postgraduate Research, International Postgraduate Research Conference 2018, Faculty of Graduate Studies,University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L.; Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N.; Iqbal, M.C.M.; Fernando, M.A.S.T.; Abeyewickreme, W.Stegomyia indices, namely; Premise Index (PI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) are used forvector management approaches in Sri Lanka. Properly defined threshold values for larval indices are of higher importance to provide forecasts on dengue epidemics and also for effective larval management of dengue vectors. However, such critical thresholds are poorly defined for Sri Lanka. The present study aimed to define threshold values forabove larval indices for dengue epidemic management in the Akurana Medical Officer of Health (MOH) in the Kandy District. Larval surveys were conducted on a monthly basis from January, 2016 to June, 2018. Four larval indices, namely BI for Aedesaegypti (BIA) and Aedesalbopictus (BIB), PI and CI were calculated. Further, monthly larval indices of AkuranaMOH area from January, 2012 to December, 2015, were obtained from the MOH office, along with monthly reported dengue cases for the entire study period. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves in SPSS (version 23) were used to assess the discriminative power of the larval indices in determiningdengue epidemics and thresholds based on larval indices. As indicated by the area of ROC curve (AUC), the BIA (0.661) and PI (0.637) were having a notable discriminative power to forecast dengue epidemics at a two-month lag period. Both BIB (0.397) and CI (0.526) were non-informative influencers at one and two-month lag periods. The BIA and PI were better predictors of dengue incidence than BIB and CI. Based on the ROC curve, three risk thresholds were defined for BIA as Low Risk (BIA≤2.1), Moderate Risk (3.9≤BIA<4.85), and High Risk (BIA≥4.85), with respect to Ae. aegypti. According to the PI, thresholds were defined as Low Risk (PI≤6.2), Moderate Risk (7.7≤ PI<9.9), and High Risk (PI≥ 9.9). Threshold values defined for BI of Ae. aegypti and PI, could be recommended to be considered in implementing vector control efforts in the above study area for effective dengue epidemic management, through pre planned entomological management of dengue vectors.Item Laboratory Evaluation of the Bio-control Efficacy of Selected Copepods on Dengue Vectors of Sri Lanka(19th Conference on Postgraduate Research, International Postgraduate Research Conference 2018, Faculty of Graduate Studies,University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L.; Ranathunge, R.M.T.; Iqbal, M.C.M.; Abeyewickreme, W.; Hapugoda, M.Among variety of alternatives for management of dengue vectors, biological control remains as a promising approach, due to its high efficacy, sustainability and low impacts on human and ecosystem health. Copepods are considered asa leading predator of mosquito larvae including Aedes vectors. However, the predatory potential of different copepods on bio-control of dengue vectors has been less studied in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the current study aimed to evaluate the predatory success of five locally abundant copepods on both AedesaegyptiandAe. albopictus. Copepod collections were made from water bodies and rock pools located in the Kandy and Gampaha districts by using a plankton net. After morphological identification, single gravid copepods of different species were used to establish copepod cultures under standard laboratory conditions. Five adult copepods of each species were transferred into containers and groups of 200 first instar Ae. Aegypti larvae were introduced in to each container, separately. The number of surviving larvae in each container was recorded at 3 hour intervals up to 24 hours. Five replicates were conducted for each copepod species. Same experimental design was followed for Ae. albopictus. General Linear Modelling technique (GLM) followed by Tukey’s pair-wise comparison was used to make statistical inferences on the significance of average larvalconsumption rates by studied copepod species. SPSS (version 23) was used for the statistical analysis. Five species of copepods, namely Cyclops languides, C. varicans, C. vernalis, Mesocyclopleuckarti and M. scrassus were considered during the study. Average predation rates of 34.9±1.80 and 33.5±1.06 for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively, were indicated by M. leuckartias the highest predation rates. Meanwhile, M. scrassus showed the second highest predation rates for both Aedes vectors. On the other hand, the lowest predatory efficacy was shown by C. languides with 10.6+1.60 and 8.4+1.10 for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. The average consumption rates of different copepod species varied significantly (p<0.05 at 5% level of significance). The type of Aedes species had a significant influence on the predatory efficacy of studied copepods (p< 0.05) under laboratory conditions. In conclusion, M. leuckartiand M. scrassus that reported the highest predation efficacies on both Aedes larvae could be suggested as potential bio-control agents for dengue vector management approaches in Sri Lanka after semi field and field settings.