Symposium on Statistical & Computational Modelling with Applications (SymSCMA)

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    Modelling and Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka
    (Department of Statistics & Computer Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2016) Priyangika, J.H.; Pallawala, P.K.B.N.M.; Sooriyaarachchi, D.J.C.
    Tourism is one of the major industry shows a rapid growth in the Sri Lankan economy. According to the annual tourism statistics, the international tourist arrivals shows 4.4% growth in 2015 and 27.72% growth in foreign exchange earnings in the same year compared to 2014. Therefore, understanding and examining the upcoming trends of tourist’s arrivals is really important and it will be beneficial and important for stakeholders and interesting parties of the country. The purpose of this research study is to investigate and forecast the tourist’s arrival in Sri Lanka based on the available past data. The collected tourist’s arrivals data from 2000 January to 2014 December are used for this study. For the reason that the tourist’s arrivals data follow univariate time series, the time series techniques, ARIMA and GARCH models, are proposed to use in forecasting. Since the data consists with heteroscedasticity, transformation methods are needed to use in some time series modelling approaches. In GARCH model approach, original data is used for identifying a suitable model while Box-cox transform is used in SARIMA model approach to overcome the heteroscedasticity problem. Basically, model selection is done based on AIC values and MAPE, MAE and RMSE values used for measure the performance of selected models. Among the proposed time series models, none of the SARIMA models are fitted well for the data as they are not diagnostic. Finally, ARCH (1) model with optimal lag (2, 7, and 12) is identified as the best model to forecast the future values of tourist’s arrivals in Sri Lanka.
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    A New Financial Time Series Approach for Volatility Forecasting
    (Department of Statistics & Computer Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2016) Rathnayaka, R.M.K.T.; Seneiratna, D.M.K.N.; Arumawadu, H.I.
    The investment in capital market is easiest, fastest and securable way for building healthy financial foundation today. Because of the economic outlooks causing directly on these market fluctuations, the making decisions in the equity market has been regarding as one of the biggest challenges in the modern economy. The main purpose of this study is to take an attempt to understand the behavioral patterns and seek to develop a new hybrid forecasting approach under the volatility. The results are successfully implemented on Colombo stock exchange (CSE), Sri Lanka over the three year period from January 2013 to December 2015. The empirical results indicated that the new proposed hybrid approach is more suitable for forecasting price indices than traditional time series forecasting methodologies under the high volatility.