The Effect of Foreign Exchange Market Returns on Stock Market Performance in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Exchange rate is one of the most influencing macroeconomic variables on stock returns in most of the countries. Thus, main objective of this study is to identify the effect of foreign exchange market returns on stock market performance in Sri Lanka. In order to evidence the study, researcher used publicly available secondary data from Colombo Stock Exchange and Central Bank of Sri Lanka. According to Guneratne (2011), exchange rate has a strong explanatory power in determining the stock market returns of the country. All share price index percentage changes are observed as dependent variable and the respective percentage changes of USD/LKR, EUR/LKR and GBP/LKR exchange rates as independent variables of this research. Exchange rate data for the period of 2002 to 2014 are considered for the research. A linear multiple regression model is developed to find the relationship between selected variables and following Noel & John (2009), correlation between variables are tested. Results of the research discloses that USD/LKR and GBP/LKR exchange rate returns have a strong explanatory power to All share price index (ASPI) returns. At the same time USD/LKR returns exhibits a negative correlation while other two exchange rates have a positive but weak correlation to ASPI returns. Findings of this research provide valuable information to investors in equity markets, to forecast potential stock returns with reference to exchange market fluctuations.