Development of a risk prediction model for postpartum onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, following gestational diabetes; the lifestyle InterVention in gestational diabetes (LIVING) study

dc.contributor.authorBelsti, Y.
dc.contributor.authorMoran, L.J.
dc.contributor.authorGoldstein, R.
dc.contributor.authorMousa, A.
dc.contributor.authorCooray, S.D.
dc.contributor.authorBaker, S.
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Y.
dc.contributor.authorPatel, A.
dc.contributor.authorTandon, N.
dc.contributor.authorAjanthan, S.
dc.contributor.authorJohn, R.
dc.contributor.authorNaheed, A.
dc.contributor.authorChakma, N.
dc.contributor.authorLakshmi, J.K.
dc.contributor.authorZoungas, S.
dc.contributor.authorBillot, L.
dc.contributor.authorDesai, A.
dc.contributor.authorBhatla, N.
dc.contributor.authorPrabhakaran, D.
dc.contributor.authorGupta, I.
dc.contributor.authorDe Silva, H.A.
dc.contributor.authorKapoor, D.
dc.contributor.authorPraveen, D.
dc.contributor.authorFarzana, N.
dc.contributor.authorEnticott, J.
dc.contributor.authorTeede, H.
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-30T05:55:01Z
dc.date.available2024-07-30T05:55:01Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.descriptionIndexed in MEDLINEen_US
dc.description.abstractAIMS This study aimed to develop a prediction model for identifying a woman with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) post-birth.METHODS Utilising data from 1299 women in the Lifestyle Intervention IN Gestational Diabetes (LIVING) study, two models were developed: one for pregnancy and another for postpartum. Key predictors included glucose test results, medical history, and biometric indicators.RESULTS Of the initial cohort, 124 women developed T2DM within three years. The study identified seven predictors for the antenatal T2DM risk prediction model and four for the postnatal one. The models demonstrated good to excellent predictive ability, with Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) values of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72 to 0.80) and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.88) for the antenatal and postnatal models, respectively. Both models underwent rigorous validation, showing minimal optimism in predictive capability. Antenatal model, considering the Youden index optimal cut-off point of 0.096, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 70.97%, 70.81%, and 70.82%, respectively. For the postnatal model, considering the cut-off point 0.086, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 81.40%, 75.60%, and 76.10%, respectively.CONCLUSIONS These models are effective for predicting T2DM risk in women with GDM, although external validation is recommended before widespread application.en_US
dc.identifier.citationClinical Nutrition.2024;43(8):1728-1735en_US
dc.identifier.issn0261-5614 (Print)
dc.identifier.issn1532-1983 (Electronic)
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/27938
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.subjectGestational diabetes mellitusen_US
dc.subjectPredictive modelen_US
dc.subjectPrognosisen_US
dc.subjectPrognostic modelen_US
dc.subjectType 2 diabetesen_US
dc.titleDevelopment of a risk prediction model for postpartum onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, following gestational diabetes; the lifestyle InterVention in gestational diabetes (LIVING) studyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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