Medicine
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This repository contains the published and unpublished research of the Faculty of Medicine by the staff members of the faculty
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Item Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model for Sri Lankans using machine learning.(Public Library of Science, 2024-10) Mettananda, C.; Sanjeewa, I.; Arachchi, T.B.; Wijesooriya, A.; Chandrasena, C.; Weerasinghe, T.; Solangaarachchige, M.; Ranasinghe, A.; Elpitiya, I.; Sammandapperuma, R.; Kurukulasooriya, S.; Ranawaka, U.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Kasturiratne, A.; Kato, N.; Wickramasinghe, R.; Haddela, P.; De Silva, J.INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Sri Lankans do not have a specific cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction model and therefore, World Health Organization(WHO) risk charts developed for the Southeast Asia Region are being used. We aimed to develop a CV risk prediction model specific for Sri Lankans using machine learning (ML) of data of a population-based, randomly selected cohort of Sri Lankans followed up for 10 years and to validate it in an external cohort.MATERIAL AND METHODS The cohort consisted of 2596 individuals between 40-65 years of age in 2007, who were followed up for 10 years. Of them, 179 developed hard CV diseases (CVD) by 2017. We developed three CV risk prediction models named model 1, 2 and 3 using ML. We compared predictive performances between models and the WHO risk charts using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). The most predictive and practical model for use in primary care, model 3 was named "SLCVD score" which used age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level in the calculation. We developed an online platform to calculate the SLCVD score. Predictions of SLCVD score were validated in an external hospital-based cohort.RESULTS Model 1, 2, SLCVD score and the WHO risk charts predicted 173, 162, 169 and 10 of 179 observed events and the area under the ROC (AUC) were 0.98, 0.98, 0.98 and 0.52 respectively. During external validation, the SLCVD score and WHO risk charts predicted 56 and 18 respectively of 119 total events and AUCs were 0.64 and 0.54 respectively.CONCLUSIONS SLCVD score is the first and only CV risk prediction model specific for Sri Lankans. It predicts the 10-year risk of developing a hard CVD in Sri Lankans. SLCVD score was more effective in predicting Sri Lankans at high CV risk than WHO risk charts.Item Stroke in old age(Ceylon College of Physicians, 2024) Ranawaka, U.Strokes are more common in old age, and with an increasingly ageing population, Sri Lanka is likely to witness a dramatic increase in older patients with stroke. Strokes are different, are more severe and lead to more deaths and disability in old age, requiring different approaches to management. However, decision making on treatment and prevention of stroke in old age is hampered by a lack of robust evidence, as clinical trial data on stroke in old age is limited. Available data suggest that effective treatment and prevention options are underutilized due to a sense of therapeutic nihilism and concerns over safety of medications. More research is clearly needed to define the optimal treatment and preventive strategies.Item Guillain-Barre syndrome of acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN) type associated with herpes zoster: a case report(BioMed Central, 2024) Wanninayake, L.; Rajapaksha, D.; Nair, N.; Gunarathne, K.; Ranawaka, U.Guillain Barre syndrome (GBS) following Varicella zoster is a rare presentation and has only been reported in a few cases around the world. Of the reported cases, the type of GBS is not specifed in the majority, and where specifed is of the acute infammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (AIDP) type. We report a case of acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN) type GBS following herpes zoster in a 27-year-old male who presented with bilateral lower limb weakness and left sided lower motor neuron type facial nerve palsy a week after herpes zoster infection.Item Azygous anterior cerebral artery infarction(Oxford, 2024) Fernando, N.; Ranawaka, U.No abstract availableItem Neurological disorders associated with COVID-19 in Sri Lanka(BioMed Central,, 2023) Chang, T.; Wijeyekoon, R.; Keshavaraj, A.; Ranawaka, U.; Senanayake, S.; Ratnayake, P.; Senanayake, B.; Caldera, M.C.; Pathirana, G.; Sirisena, D.; Wanigasinghe, J.; Gunatilake, S.; ASN COVID-19 Study GroupBACKGROUND: Neurological manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported from many countries around the world, including the South Asian region. This surveillance study aimed to describe the spectrum of neurological disorders associated with COVID-19 in Sri Lanka. METHODS: COVID-19 patients manifesting neurological disorders one week prior and up to six weeks after infection were recruited from all the neurology centres of the government hospitals in Sri Lanka from May 2021 – May 2022. Data was collected using a structured data form that was electronically transmitted to a central repository. All patients were evaluated and managed by a neurologist. Data were analysed using simple descriptive analysis to characterise demographic and disease related variables, and simple comparisons and logistic regression were performed to analyse outcomes and their associations. RESULTS: One hundred and eighty-four patients with neurological manifestations associated with COVID-19 were recruited from all nine provinces in Sri Lanka. Ischaemic stroke (31%) was the commonest neurological manifestation followed by encephalopathy (13.6%), Guillain–Barre syndrome (GBS) (9.2%) and encephalitis (7.6%). Ischaemic stroke, encephalitis and encephalopathy presented within 6 days of onset of COVID-19 symptoms, whereas GBS and myelitis presented up to 10 days post onset while epilepsy and Bell palsy presented up to 20 – 40 days post onset. Haemorrhagic stroke presented either just prior to or at onset, or 10 – 25 days post onset of COVID-19 symptomatic infection. An increased frequency of children presenting with encephalitis and encephalopathy was observed during the Omicron variant predominant period. A poor outcome (no recovery or death) was associated with supplemental oxygen requirement during admission (Odds Ratio: 12.94; p=0.046). CONCLUSIONS: The spectrum and frequencies of COVID-19 associated neurological disorders in Sri Lanka were similar to that reported from other countries, with strokes and encephalopathy being the commonest. Requiring supplemental oxygen during hospitalisation was associated with a poor outcome.Item Comparison of urban diabetics with optimal and suboptimal control(British Medical Association, London, 2011) Pinidiyapathirage, M.; Warnakulasuriya, T.; Kasturiratne, A.; Ranawaka, U.; Gunasekera, D.; Wijekoon, N.; Medagoda, K.; Perera, S.; Takeuchi, F.; Kato, N.; Wickremasinghe, A.R.Introduction The prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus in Sri Lanka is increasing. We describe the characteristics of patients with optimal and suboptimal control of diabetes among known diabetics in a 35–64-year-old urban population resident in the Ragama Medical Officer of Health (Ragama MOH) area of Sri Lanka. Methods A cross sectional study was conducted among 2986 randomly selected 35–64 year olds in the Ragama MOH area from January to September 2007. A detailed history was taken and participants were subjected to a physical examination and assay of fasting blood glucose and HbA1C. A HBA1C <6.5 was taken as evidence of optimal control. Results There were 474 persons (194 males and 280 females) who gave a past history of diabetes. 9 males and 9 females were not on any treatment. 27 persons (9 males and 18 females) were on insulin. Of the 474 diabetics, 113 (48 males and 65 females) had a HbA1c <6.5. The average fasting blood glucose of diabetics with optimal control was 120+21 mg/dl. The mean fasting blood glucose level of the 361 subjects with sub optimal control was 190+70 mg/dl. Optimal glycaemic control was not associated with alcohol intake, smoking, obesity, central obesity and low physical activity levels. Conclusions Most known diabetics had access to treatment but only approximately 25% were optimally treated. The need to optimally manage these patients is highlighted.Item Incidence and time trends in prevalence of stroke and vascular risk factors in an urban Sri Lankan population: A population- based cohort study(Asia Pacific Stroke Organization, Hong Kong Stroke Society and Jiangsu Stroke Association & karger publishing, 2017) Mettananda, C.; Wickramarathna, B.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Ranawaka, U.BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE: Prevalence of stroke is increasing in developing countries. However, population data on time trends in prevalence of stroke in Sri Lanka not. METHODS: We screened a population-based cohort 35–64 year selected by stratified random sampling from an urban health administrative area in 2007 evaluated them again in 2014. Identified possible stroke patients were independently reviewed by a Neurologist and a Physician with regard to diagnosis and vascular risk factors. Incidence and time trends in prevalence of stroke and vascular risk factors in 50–65-year age group were compared between 2007 and 2014. RESULTS: Of 2985 baseline study population in 2007 (females 54.5%, mean age 52.4 ± 7.8 years), 2204 attended follow-up in 2014. Of them, 45 have had a stroke/TIA, (female 51.1%, mean age 52.9 ± 5.4 years). 25 (55.6%) of them were strokes within the 7 year follow up (annual incidence-1.66 per 1000 population). Prevalence of stroke in 50–65-year age group was of the 45 stroke patients reviewed in 2014, 28 (62.2%) had. Of 27 were definite strokes, 15 probable strokes and 3 TIAs. CONCLUSION: Prevalence has increased over time in urban Sri Lanka lie between developed and developing counties.Item Audit of stroke care in a Sri Lankan stroke unit(Asia Pacific Stroke Organization, Hong Kong Stroke Society and Jiangsu Stroke Association & Karger publishing, 2017) Ranawaka, U.; Tissera, G.; Silva, S.; Nanayakkara, Y.; Goonetilleke, C.; Muwanwella, P.; Sooryabandara, V.; Hill, K.; Markus, R.BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE: Data on quality of stroke care is limited from Sri Lanka, and available data suggests poor quality of care. We sought to evaluate quality of care in a Sri Lankan tertiary care centre using internationally accepted criteria. METHODS: All patients admitted with acute stroke to the Stroke Unit of the Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama over a 2-year period (January 2015-December 2016) were prospectively enrolled. Stroke care was evaluated with the Stroke Foundation, Australia Acute Stroke Audit Tool. RESULTS: 156 patients were studied {54.5% males; mean age (SD) 59 years (9.3); 83.3% ischaemic stroke}. 92.3% were living with spouse/ family. Private transport was the mode of arrival in 87.8%. CT scanning was done in 92.2%. None of the patients received thrombolysis. 39.7% were functionally independent (mRS 0–2) at 7–10 days. 71.6% were discharged on anti-hypertensive. Of those with ischemic stroke, 88.2% received anti-platelets and 95.5% statins. Swallowing screening was done in 92.5%, and for mal swallowing assessment by a speech therapist in 52.6%. Assessment by a physiotherapist was done in 96.7%, occupational therapist in 85.8%, mental health specialist in 96.8%, and communication assessment by a speech therapist in 76.6%. Multi-disciplinary team met with care-givers in 83.1%. Care-giver needs assessment was done in 96.1%, and 90.3% of care-givers received training in home care.52.6% were discharged home with rehabilitation support, and 32.1% were transferred for in-patient rehabilitation. All patients/care-givers received education before dis charge, 96.1% received a community care plan, and 93.5% were given a discharge summary. CONCLUSION: Quality of acute stroke care was satisfactory in almost all the domains studied. Care related to neuro-imaging, secondary preventive treatments, multi-disciplinary team assessment, provision of early rehabilitation services, patient education, care giver support and discharge planning was especially good. Stroke care of good quality is feasible even in resource-limited settings.Item Patterns and predictors of mortality in a semi-urban population-based cohort in Sri Lanka: findings from the Ragama Health Study(BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2020) Kasturiratne, A.; Ediriweera, D.S.; de Silva, S.T.; Niriella, M.A.; Thulani, U.B.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Dassanayake, A.S.; de Silva, A.P.; Chackrewarthy, S.; Ranawaka, U.; Kato, N.; Wickremasinghe, A.R.; de Silva, H.J.OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns and predictors of mortality in a semi-urban population in Sri Lanka. DESIGN: A prospective population-based cohort study. Setting: Ragama Medical Officer of Health area in the Gampaha district, Sri Lanka. PARTICIPANTS: Adults between 35 and 64 years of age were recruited using an age stratified random sampling technique in 2007. MEASURES: At baseline, we recorded socio-demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, biochemical and clinical data of the participants. Over 10 years, we obtained the cause and date of death from the death registration documents of deceased participants. We determined the survival probability of the cohort over 10 years and estimated Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and cancer-related mortality (CRM) using Cox's proportional hazards model. We also estimated the survival probabilities for men and women in each 10-year age group and standardised mortality ratio relative to the source population. RESULTS: There were 169 deaths over 10 years with standardised mortality rates of 5.3 and 2.4 per 1000 years of follow-up for men and women, respectively. Independent predictors of: ACM were older age, lower income, smoking and diabetes mellitus while gender, education, occupation, harmful alcohol use, waist circumference and hypertension were not; CVM were older age, lower income, smoking, diabetes and hypertension while gender and harmful alcohol use were not; CRM was older age while gender, smoking and diabetes were not. Those engaged in clerical and technical occupations or unemployed had a lower risk of CRM as compared with those engaged in elementary occupations. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, lower income, smoking, diabetes and hypertension strongly predict mortality in this cohort. Addressing the identified modifiable predictors through behavioural modification will improve longevity in similar populations. Keywords: coronary heart disease; epidemiology; public health.Item B vitamins in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or stroke in the VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke (VITATOPS) trial: a randomised, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled trial.(Lancet Pub. Group, 2010) Hankey, G.J.; Eikelboom, J.W.; Baker, R.I.; Gelavis, A.; Hickling, S.C.; Jamrozik, K.; van Bockxmeer, F.M.; Vasikaran, S.; Chen, C.; Eikelboom, J.W.; Lees, K.R.; Yi, Q.; Hankey, G.J.; Algra, A.; Chen, C.; Wong, M.C.; Cheung, R.; Wong, I.; Divjak, I.; Ferro, J.; De Freitas, G.; Gommans, J.; Groppa, S.; Hill, M.; Spence, J.D.; Lees, K.R.; Lisheng, L.; Navarro, J.; Ranawaka, U.; Ricci, S.; Schmidt, R.; Slivka, A.; Tan, A.; Tsiskaridze, A.; Uddin, W.; Vanhooren, G.; Xavier, D.; Armitage, J.; Hobbs, M.; Le, M.; Sudlow, C.; Wheatley, K.; Yi, Q.; Brown, W.; Bulder, M.; Eikelboom, J.W.; Hankey, G.J.; Ho, W.K.; Jamrozik, K.; Klijn, C.J.; Koedam, E.; Langton, P.; Nijboer, E.; Tuch, P.; Pizzi, J.; Tang, M.; Alaparthi, R.; Antenucci, M.; Chew, Y.; Chinnery, C.; Cockayne, C.; Holt, R.; Loh, K.; McMullin, L.; Mulholland, G.; Nahoo, B.; Read, E.; Smith, F.; Yip, C.Y.; Hankey, G.J.; Loh, K.; Crimmins, D.; Davis, T.; England, M.; Rakic, V.; Schultz, D.W.; Frayne, J.; Bladin, C.; Kokkinos, J.; Dunbabin, D.; Harper, J.; Rees, P.; Warden, D.; Levi, C.; Parsons, M.; Russell, M.; Spratt, N.; Clayton, P.; Nayagam, P.; Sharp, J.; Grainger, K.; De Wytt, C.; McDougall, A.; Donnan, G.A.; Grimley, R.; Neynens, E.; Reinhart, B.; Ropele, S.; Schmidt, R.; Stögerer, E.; Dedeken, P.; Schelstraete, C.; Vanhooren, G.; Veyt, A.; Andre, C.; De Freitas, G.R.; Gomes, S.E.; Mok, V.C.; Wong, A.; Wong, L.K.; Cheung, R.T.; Li, L.S.; Pais, P.; Xavier, D.; Joshi, S.; Parthasaradhi, S.; Roy, A.K.; Varghese, R.V.; Kochar, K.; Panwar, R.B.; Chidambaram, N.; Rajasekaharan, U.; Bala, S.; Pandian, J.D.; Singh, Y.; Karadan, U.; Salam, A.; Shivkumar, S.; Sundararajan, A.; Joshi, R.; Kalantri, S.P.; Singh, H.; Rath, A.; Balasubramanian, N.T.; Kalanidhi, A.; Babu, K.; Bharani, A.; Choudhary, P.; Jain, M.; Agarwal, A.; Singh, M.; Agarwal, R.R.; Gupta, R.; Kothari, S.; Mijar, S.; Wadia, R.S.; Paul, S.K.; Sekhar Nandi, S.; Mehndiratta, M.M.; Tukaram, U.; Mittal, K.; Rohatgi, A.; Kumar, S.; Vinayan, K.P.; Muralidharan, R.S.; Celani, M.G.; Favorito, I.; Mazzoli, T.; Ricci, S.; Righetti, E.; Blundo, M.; Carnemolla, A.; D'Asta, A.; Giordano, A.; Iemolo, F.; Favorito, L.; Mazzoli, T.; Ricci, S.; Righetti, E.; Gresele, P.; Guercini, F.; Caporalini, R.; De Dominicis, L.; Giovagnetti, M.; Giuliani, G.; Paoletti, S.; Pucci, E.; Cavallini, A.; Persico, A.; Casoni, F.; Costa, A.; Magoni, M.; Spezi, R.; Tortorella, R.; Venturelli, E.; Vergani, V.; Caprioli, S.; Provisione, M.; Zanotta, D.; Abdullah, J.M.; Damitri, T.; Idris, B.; Sayuthi, S.; Hong, J.J.; Tan, C.T.; Tan, K.S.; Dutca, G.; Grigor, V.; Groppa, S.; Manea, D.; Achterberg, S.; Algra, A.; Halkes, P.H.; Kappelle, L.J.; Boon, A.M.; Doelman, J.C.; Sips, R.; Visscher, F.; Kwa, V.I.; Ternede, O.A.; van der Sande, J.J.; Frendin, T.; Gommans, J.; Anderson, N.E.; Bennett, P.; Charleston, A.; Spriggs, D.; Singh, J.; Bourke, J.; Bucknell, R.; McNaughton, H.; Anwar, A.; Murtaza, H.; Uddin, W.; Ismail, J.; Khan, N.U.; Navarro, J.C.; Amor, V.G.; Canete, M.T.; Lim, C.; Ravelo, E.B.; Siguenza, M.; Villahermosa, M.O.; Siguenza, M.; Canete, M.T.; Cardino, M.J.; Cenabre, R.; Gara, M.; Salas, Z.; Batac, A.; Canete, M.T.; Conde, L.; Dumdum, P.; Garcia, F.S.; Libarnes, S.; Matig-a, N.; Olanda, N.; Arcenas, R.; Canete, M.T.; Loraña, A.; Surdilla, A.; Araullo, M.L.; Lokin, J.; Maylem, G.; Marques, E.; Veloso, M.; Correia, M.; Lopes, G.; Canhão, P.; Ferro, J.M.; Melo, T.P.; Dias, A.; Sousa, A.P.; Tsiskaridze, A.; Vashadze, T.; Divjak, I.; Papic, V.; Chang, H.M.; Chen, C.P.; de Silva, D.A.; Tan, E.K.; Ranawaka, U.K.; Wijesekera, J.C.; de Silva, H.A.; Wijekoon, C.N.; Dawson, U.K.; Higgins, P.; Lees, K.R.; MacDonald, L.; McArthur, K.; McIlvenna, Y.; Quinn, T.; Walters, M.; Curless, R.; Dickson, J.; Murdy, J.; Scott, A.; Cameron, S.; Darnley, K.; Dennis, M.; Lyle, D.; Hunter, A.; Watt, M.; Watt, M.; Wiggam, I.; Murdy, J.; Rodgers, H.; Dick, F.; Macleod, M.; McKenzie, A.; Jones, P.; Jones, S.; Hussain, M.; Albazzaz, M.K.; Elliott, K.; Hardware, B.; Bacabac, E.; Martin, H.; Sharma, A.; Sutton, V.; Baht, H.; Cowie, L.; Gunathilagan, G.; Hargrove, D.R.; Smithard, D.J.; Adrian, M.; Bath, P.; Hammonds, F.; Maguire, H.; Roff, C.; Datta-chaudhuri, M.; Diyazee, K.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; McNulty, K.; Okwera, J.; Hilaire, C.; Kelly, D.; Barron, L.; James, M.; Wedge, N.; Bruce, M.; Macleod, M.; Barber, M.; Esson, D.; Ames, D.; Chataway, J.; Bulley, S.; Jenkins, K.; Rashed, K.; Dafalla, B.E.; Venugopalan, T.C.; Ball, M.; Punnoose, S.; Justin, F.; Sekaran, L.; Sethuraman, S.; Goddard, H.; Howard, J.; McIlmoyle, J.; Diver-Hall, C.; McCarron, M.; McNicholl, M.P.; Clamp, B.; Hunter, J.; Oke, A.; Weaver, A.; Fraser, P.; McAlpine, C.; Chambers, J.; Dymond, H.; Saunders, G.; Langhorne, P.; Stott, D.; Wright, F.; Adie, K.; Bland, R.; Courtauld, G.; Harrington, F.; James, A.; Mate, A.; Schofield, C.; Wroath, C.; Duberley, S.; Punekar, S.; Niranjan, K.; Sandler, D.; Krishna, P.; Moussouttas, M.; Notestine, M.A.; Slivka, A.; Vallini, D.; Hwang, T.; Saverance, M.; Booth, K.; Murphy, D.BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies suggest that raised plasma concentrations of total homocysteine might be a risk factor for major vascular events. Whether lowering total homocysteine with B vitamins prevents major vascular events in patients with previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack is unknown. We aimed to assess whether the addition of once-daily supplements of B vitamins to usual medical care would lower total homocysteine and reduce the combined incidence of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and death attributable to vascular causes in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack of the brain or eye. METHODS: In this randomised, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack (within the past 7 months) from 123 medical centres in 20 countries to receive one tablet daily of placebo or B vitamins (2 mg folic acid, 25 mg vitamin B6, and 0.5 mg vitamin B12). Patients were randomly allocated by means of a central 24-h telephone service or an interactive website, and allocation was by use of random permuted blocks stratified by hospital. Participants, clinicians, carers, and investigators who assessed outcomes were masked to the assigned intervention. The primary endpoint was the composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death. All patients randomly allocated to a group were included in the analysis of the primary endpoint. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00097669, and Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN74743444. FINDINGS: Between Nov 19, 1998, and Dec 31, 2008, 8164 patients were randomly assigned to receive B vitamins (n=4089) or placebo (n=4075). Patients were followed up for a median duration of 3.4 years (IQR 2.0-5.5). 616 (15%) patients assigned to B vitamins and 678 (17%) assigned to placebo reached the primary endpoint (risk ratio [RR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00, p=0.05; absolute risk reduction 1.56%, -0.01 to 3.16). There were no unexpected serious adverse reactions and no significant differences in common adverse effects between the treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Daily administration of folic acid, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 to patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack was safe but did not seem to be more effective than placebo in reducing the incidence of major vascular events. These results do not support the use of B vitamins to prevent recurrent stroke. The results of ongoing trials and an individual patient data meta-analysis will add statistical power and precision to present estimates of the effect of B vitamins. FUNDING: Australia National Health and Medical Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, Singapore Biomedical Research Council, Singapore National Medical Research Council, Australia National Heart Foundation, Royal Perth Hospital Medical Research Foundation, and Health Department of Western Australia.