Medicine
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This repository contains the published and unpublished research of the Faculty of Medicine by the staff members of the faculty
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Item Time series analysis of leishmaniasis incidence in Sri Lanka: evidence for humidity-associated fluctuations(Springer Verlag, 2023) Wijerathna, T.; Gunathilaka, N.Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease of which the transmission is highly influenced by climatic factors, whereas the nature and magnitude differ between geographical regions. The effects of climatic variables on leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka are poorly investigated. The present study focused on time-series analysis of leishmaniasis cases reported from Sri Lanka with selected climatic variables. Variance stabilized time series of leishmaniasis patients of entire Sri Lanka and major districts from 2014 to 2018 was fitted to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. All the possible models were generated by assigning different values for autoregression and moving average terms using a function written in R statistical program. The top ten models with the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) values were selected by writing another function. These models were further evaluated using RMSE and MAPE error parameters to select the optimal model for each area. Cross-autocorrelation analyses were performed to assess the associations between climate and the leishmaniasis incidence. Most associated lags of each variable were integrated into the optimal models to determine the true effects imposed. The optimal models varied depending on the area. SARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 was optimal for the country level. All the forecasts were within the 95% confidence intervals. Humidity was the most notable factor associated with leishmaniasis, which could be attributed to the positive impacts on sand fly activity. Rainfall showed a negative impact probably as a result of flooding of sand fly larval habitats. The ARIMA-based models performed well for the prediction of leishmaniasis in the short term.Item Susceptibility to malaria during the prevention of re-establishment phase in Sri Lanka(BioMed Central, 2022) Jeevatharan, H.; Wickremasinghe, R.BACKGROUND: Sri Lanka eliminated malaria in November 2012 and was certified malaria-free by the World Health Organization (WHO) in September 2016 but is facing a challenge to prevent re-establishment of malaria. Influx of travellers from malarious countries and the presence of malaria vectors in formerly endemic areas make the country both receptive and vulnerable. Susceptibility to malaria, the predisposition of populations to be infected by malaria parasites, is influenced by biologic and generic factors such as the age-sex composition, socio economic status, and the migration history of the population. The aim of this study was to assess susceptibility to malaria during the prevention of re-establishment phase in Sri Lanka. METHODS: A national survey was conducted among 3454 households. A multistage cluster sampling technique was used to select the households. Susceptibility was assessed based on pre-defined variables by interviewing heads of households using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Basic socio-demographic information, travel history, history of fever and past malaria infections in the preceding three years were collected. Data were analysed using SPSS version 20 package. RESULTS: The percentage of the population who had been overseas within the last 3 years in the urban sector (4.5%, n = 99) was higher than that of the rural (2.8%, n = 288) and estate sectors (0.2%, n = 2) (p < 0.001); it also declined with the wealth index up to the 4th quintile with a slight rise in the 5th quintile (p < 0.001). The likelihood of travel overseas was 1.75 times (95% CI: 1.38-2.22) higher for urban residents as compared rural estate residents; it was 1.46 times (95% CI: 1.16-1.92) higher for persons from the upper wealth index quintile as compared to persons from the 1st and 2nd quintiles after controlling for sex, age and area of residence. 177 persons had fever within the past 2 weeks of the survey. There was no association between presence of fever within the last 2 weeks and sector or travel abroad. CONCLUSIONS: Urban residents, upper socioeconomic class persons and males are more likely to travel overseas and bring the parasite into the country. Social vulnerability and risk of re-establishment of malaria can be assessed by combining susceptibility with resilience and receptivity.Item Young patients with colorectal cancer have poor survival in the first twenty months after operation and predictable survival in the medium and long-term: analysis of survival and prognostic markers(BioMed Central, 2010) Chan, K.K.; Dassanayake, B.; Deen, R.; Wickramarachchi, R.E.; Kumarage, S.K.; Samita, S.; Deen, K.I.OBJECTIVES: This study compares clinico-pathological features in young (<40 years) and older patients (>50 years) with colorectal cancer, survival in the young and the influence of pre-operative clinical and histological factors on survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A twelve-year prospective database of colorectal cancer was analysed. Fifty-three young patients were compared with forty-seven consecutive older patients over fifty years old. An analysis of survival was undertaken in young patients using Kaplan Meier graphs, non-parametric methods, Cox's Proportional Hazard Ratios and Weibull Hazard models. RESULTS: Young patients comprised 13.4 percent of 397 with colorectal cancer. Duration of symptoms and presentation in the young was similar to older patients (median, range; young patients; 6 months, 2 weeks to 2 years, older patients; 4 months, 4 weeks to 3 years, p > 0.05). In both groups, the majority presented without bowel obstruction (young--81%, older--94%). Cancer proximal to the splenic flexure was present more in young than in older patients. Synchronous cancers were found exclusively in the young. Mucinous tumours were seen in 16% of young and 4% of older patients (p < 0.05). Ninety-four percent of young cancer deaths were within 20 months of operation. At median follow up of 50 months in the young, overall survival was 70% and disease free survival 66%. American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage 4 and use of pre-operative chemoradiation in rectal cancer was associated with poor survival in the young. CONCLUSION: If patients, who are less than 40 years old with colorectal cancer, survive twenty months after operation, the prognosis improves and their survival becomes predictable.Item Evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of snakebite in Sri Lanka: Monthly incidence mapping from a national representative survey sample(Public Library of Science, 2021) Ediriweera, D.S.; Kasturiratne, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Gunawardena, N.K.; Jayamanne, S.F.; Murray, K.; Iwamura, T.; Isbister, G.; Dawson, A.; Lalloo, D.G.; de Silva, H.J.; Diggle, P.J.BACKGROUND: Snakebite incidence shows both spatial and temporal variation. However, no study has evaluated spatiotemporal patterns of snakebites across a country or region in detail. We used a nationally representative population sample to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey representing all nine provinces of Sri Lanka. We interviewed 165 665 people (0.8% of the national population), and snakebite events reported by the respondents were recorded. Sri Lanka is an agricultural country; its central, southern and western parts receive rain mainly from Southwest monsoon (May to September) and northern and eastern parts receive rain mainly from Northeast monsoon (November to February). We developed spatiotemporal models using multivariate Poisson process modelling to explain monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in the country. These models were developed at the provincial level to explain local spatiotemporal patterns. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Snakebites and envenomings showed clear spatiotemporal patterns. Snakebite hotspots were found in North-Central, North-West, South-West and Eastern Sri Lanka. They exhibited biannual seasonal patterns except in South-Western inlands, which showed triannual seasonality. Envenoming hotspots were confined to North-Central, East and South-West parts of the country. Hotspots in North-Central regions showed triannual seasonal patterns and South-West regions had annual patterns. Hotspots remained persistent throughout the year in Eastern regions. The overall monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in Sri Lanka were 39 (95%CI: 38-40) and 19 (95%CI: 13-30) per 100 000, respectively, translating into 110 000 (95%CI: 107 500-112 500) snakebites and 45 000 (95%CI: 32 000-73 000) envenomings in a calendar year. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides information on community-based monthly incidence of snakebites and envenomings over the whole country. Thus, it provides useful insights into healthcare decision-making, such as, prioritizing locations to establish specialized centres for snakebite management and allocating resources based on risk assessments which take into account both location and season.Item Spatial epidemiologic trends and hotspots of leishmaniasis, Sri Lanka, 2001-2018(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2020) Karunaweera, N.D.; Ginige, S.; Senanayake, S.; Silva, H.; Manamperi, N.; Samaranayake, N.; Siriwardana, Y.; Gamage, D.; Senerath, U.; Zhou, G.;ABSTRACT: Leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, is on the decline in South Asia. However, cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis have risen in Sri Lanka since 2001, and the lack of in-depth research on its epidemiologic characteristics hampers control efforts. We analyzed data collected from patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka during 2001-2018 to study temporal and geographic trends and identify and monitor disease hotspots. We noted a progression in case rates, including a sharp rise in 2018, showing temporal expansion of disease-prevalent areas and 2 persistent hotspots. The northern hotspot shifted and shrank over time, but the southern hotspot progressively expanded and remained spatially static. In addition, we noted regional incidence differences for age and sex. We provide evidence of temporally progressive and spatially expanding incidence of leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka with distinct geographic patterns and disease hotspots, signaling an urgent need for effective disease control interventions. KEYWORDS: Asia; Indian subcontinent; Leishmania donovani; Sri Lanka; cutaneous leishmaniasis; dermatological pathologies; epidemiology; infectious diseases; leishmaniasis; parasites; protozoa; skin lesions; vector-borne infections.Item Association of Hantavirus infections and Leptospirosis with the occurrence of Chronic Kidney Disease of Uncertain Etiology in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka: A prospective study with patients and healthy persons(Frontiers Media SA, 2020) Sunil-Chandra, N.P.; Jayaweera, J.A.A.S.; Kumbukgolla, W.; Jayasundara, M.V.M.L.ABSTRACT: Chronic Kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) has become a significant disease burden, affecting farming community of Sri Lanka and the exact etiology, which could be multifactorial, is not hitherto established. This study is aimed to determine the association of past hantavirus infection and leptospirosis with the occurrence of CKDu. A cohort (n = 179) of known CKDu patients living in high-CKDu prevalent areas of Anuradhapura district of Sri Lanka was compared with a group of 49 healthy, sex-matched younger blood relatives of CKDu patients (control-1) and another 48 healthy, age, and sex-matched individuals living in low-CKDu prevalent area (control-2) of the same district where same life style and climate conditions prevail. Fifty out of 179 (27.9%) CKDu patients, 16/49 (32.7%) of control-1 and 7/48 (14.6%) of control-2 were found positive for IgG antibodies to Puumala, Hantaan or both strains of hantaviruses. Hantaan strain specificity was found to be predominant in all study groups. Hantavirus IgG sero-prevalence of healthy individuals living in low-CKDu prevalent area was significantly lower compared to CKDu patients and healthy younger blood relatives living in high-CKDu prevalent areas (p = 0.03). Past hantavirus infection possesses a significant risk for the occurrence of CKDu (OR = 4.5; 95% CI-3.1-5.4, p = 0.02). In contrast, IgG seroprevalence to hantaviruses was not significantly different in CKDu patients and healthy younger blood relatives living in high-CKDu prevalent areas indicating past hantavirus infection has no association with the occurrence of CKDu or possibly, younger relatives may develop CKDu in subsequent years. Seroprevalence to leptospirosis showed no significant difference between CKDu patients and healthy controls. KEYWORDS: CKDu; chronic kidney disease; hantaviruses; leptospira; sero-prevalence. Erratum in: Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2020;10:631515Item Preventing the re-establishment of malaria in Sri Lanka amidst the COVID-19 pandemic(BioMed Central, 2020) Ranaweera, P.; Wickremasinghe, R.; Mendis, K.ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on other health programmes in countries, including on malaria, and is currently under much discussion. As many countries are accelerating efforts to eliminate malaria or to prevent the re-establishment of malaria from recently eliminated countries, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to cause major interruptions to ongoing anti-malaria operations and risk jeopardizing the gains that have been made so far. Sri Lanka, having eliminated malaria in 2012, was certified by the World Health Organization as a malaria-free country in 2016 and now implements a rigorous programme to prevent its re-establishment owing to the high receptivity and vulnerability of the country to malaria. Sri Lanka has also dealt with the COVID-19 epidemic quite successfully limiting the cumulative number of infections and deaths through co-ordinated efforts between the health sector and other relevant sectors, namely the military, the Police Department, Departments of Airport and Aviation and Foreign Affairs, all of which have been deployed for the COVID-19 epidemic under the umbrella of a Presidential Task Force. The relevance of imported infections and the need for a multi-sectoral response are features common to both the control of the COVID-19 epidemic and the Prevention of Re-establishment (POR) programme for malaria. Sri Lanka's malaria POR programme has, therefore, creatively integrated its activities with those of the COVID-19 control programme. Through highly coordinated operations the return to the country of Sri Lankan nationals stranded overseas by the COVID-19 pandemic, many from malaria endemic countries, are being monitored for malaria as well as COVID-19 in an integrated case surveillance system under quarantine conditions, to the success of both programmes. Twenty-three imported malaria cases were detected from February to October through 2773 microscopic blood examinations performed for malaria in quarantine centres, this number being not much different to the incidence of imported malaria during the same period last year. This experience highlights the importance of integrated case surveillance and the need for a highly coordinated multi-sectoral approach in dealing with emerging new infections. It also suggests that synergies between the COVID-19 epidemic control programme and other health programmes may be found and developed to the advantage of both. KEYWORDS: Contact tracing; Malaria and COVID-19; Multi-sectoral health collaboration; Prevention of re-establishment of malaria; Quarantine.Item Larval indices of vector mosquitoes as predictors of dengue epidemics: An approach to manage dengue outbreaks based on entomological parameters in the districts of Colombo and Kandy, Sri Lanka(Hindawi Pub. Co., 2020) Udayanga, L.; Aryaprema, S.; Gunathilaka, N.; Iqbal, M. C. M.; Fernando, T.; Abeyewickreme, W.BACKGROUND: Early detection of dengue epidemics is a vital aspect in control programmes. Predictions based on larval indices of disease vectors are widely used in dengue control, with defined threshold values. However, there is no set threshold in Sri Lanka at the national or regional levels for Aedes larval indices. Therefore, the current study aimed at developing threshold values for vector indices in two dengue high-risk districts in Sri Lanka. METHODS: Monthly vector indices (House Index [HI], Container Index [CI], Breteau Index for Aedes aegypti [BIagp], and Ae. albopictus [BIalb]), of ten selected dengue high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas located in Colombo and Kandy districts, were collected from January 2010 to June 2019, along with monthly reported dengue cases. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in SPSS (version 23) was used to assess the discriminative power of the larval indices in identifying dengue epidemics and to develop thresholds for the dengue epidemic management. RESULTS: Only HI and BIagp denoted significant associations with dengue epidemics at lag periods of one and two months. Based on Ae. aegypti, average threshold values were defined for Colombo as Low Risk (2.4 ≤ BIagp < 3.8), Moderate Risk (3.8 ≤ BIagp < 5), High Risk (BIagp ≥ 5), along with BIagp 2.9 ≤ BIagp < 4.2 (Low Risk), 4.2 ≤ BIagp < 5.3 (Moderate Risk), and BIagp ≥ 5.3 (High Risk) for Kandy. Further, 5.5 ≤ HI < 8.9, 8.9 ≤ HI < 11.9, and HI ≥ 11.9 were defined as Low Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk average thresholds for HI in Colombo, while 6.9 ≤ HI < 9.1 (Low Risk), 8.9 ≥ HI < 11.8 (Moderate Risk), and HI ≥ 11.8 (High Risk) were defined for Kandy. CONCLUSIONS: The defined threshold values for Ae. aegypti and HI could be recommended as indicators for early detection of dengue epidemics and to drive vector management activities, with the objective of managing dengue epidemics with optimal usage of financial, technical, and human resources in Sri Lanka.Item Epidemiology of multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Sri Lanka: First evidence of bla KPC harboring Klebsiella pneumoniae.(Elsevier., 2020) Kumudunie, W.G.M.; Wijesooriya, L.I.; Namalie, K.D.; Sunil-Chandra, N.P.; Wijayasinghe, Y.S.BACKGROUND: Extended-spectrum β-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are disseminated worldwide posing a serious public health concern. Although, the presence of ESBL-PE and CRE in Sri Lanka has been reported, the prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to provide up-to-date epidemiological data on multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and to characterize the molecular determinants of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in Sri Lanka.METHODS: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Sri Lanka between December 2017 and February 2018. ESBL-PE and CRE were identified by disc diffusion method. Carbapenemase production was determined by carbapenem inactivation method and the presence of selected carbapenemase genes were detected by PCR. RESULTS: Five hundred and ninety-three Enterobacteriaceae were isolated from variety of clinical samples. Overall prevalence of ESBL-PE and CRE were 26.0% (n = 154) and 9.6% (n = 57), respectively. The highest rate of ESBL-PE (30.8%) was found in urine samples, while the highest occurrence of CRE (20.8%) was seen in respiratory specimens. The most common CRE species identified was K. pneumoniae (n = 46, 80.7%), followed by C. freundii (n = 4, 7.0%), E. coli (n = 3, 5.3%), P. rettgeri (n = 2, 3.5%), E. cloacae (n = 1, 1.7%), and K. aerogenes (n = 1, 1.7%). Carbapenemase production was observed in 54 (94.7%) of CRE isolates. Fifty eight carbapenemase encoding genes were identified in 54 CPE. The most prevalent carbapenemase gene was blaOXA-48-like (n = 48, 88.9%), followed by blaNDM (n = 8, 14.8%), and blaKPC (n = 2, 3.7%). CONCLUSIONS: This study reports an alarming rate of CRE and the emergence of blaKPC harboring K. pneumoniae in Sri Lanka. The need for preventive measures is highlighted to limit the spread of these difficult-to-treat bacteria in the country. KEYWORDS: Carbapenem resistance; Carbapenemase; ESBL; Enterobacteriaceae; KPC; Sri Lanka.Item Prevalence of cutaneous leishmaniasis infection and clinico-epidemiological patterns among military personnel in Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts of the Northern Province, early war-torn areas in Sri Lanka.(BioMed Central, 2020) Gunathilaka, N.; Semege, S.; Pathirana, N.; Manamperi, N.; Udayanga, L.; Wijesinghe, H.; Premaratne, P.; Fernando, D.BACKGROUND: The 30-year-old armed conflict in Sri Lanka resulted in a general breakdown of civil administration in the Northern and Eastern provinces, leading to mobilisation of many armed forces personnel to assist with reconstruction and resettlement. This occupational group has been identified as a priority risk group for leishmaniasis. METHODS: Individuals enlisted at all military establishments in Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts, Northern Province of Sri Lanka were included. Five thousand individuals were screened for skin lesions between September 2018 and August 2019. Persons with lesions suspected as cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) were further investigated. Information on sociodemographic/other potential risk factors was obtained through an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire. The diagnosis was confirmed by microscopic visualization of parasitic stages from different samples obtained (skin scraping, lesion aspirate and tissue impression smears), histopathology and polymerase chain reaction DNA amplification. RESULTS: Among 5000 individuals screened, 74 individuals were suspected of having CL. Of these, 67.6% (n = 50) patients were confirmed for CL by microscopy. Around two third of both males (67.6%; n = 48) and females (66.6%; n = 2) were positive for Leishmania. The soldiers belonging to 26-35-year age group reported the highest susceptibility (83.3%; OR: 4.83, 95% CI: 3.49-6.20%). Of the sociodemographic factors, age, wearing short-sleeved upper body clothing as the uniform and non-use of insect repellents were identified as significant risk factors. Most of the CL patients had a single lesion (86.0%; n = 43) of an ulcerative type (34.0%; n = 17), mostly on their upper limb (67.9%; n = 34). Lesions were mostly 5-10 mm diameter (59.9%; n = 30) in size with poorly defined margins (72.0%; n = 36). Amongst the diagnostic techniques, microscopic examination of slit skin smear and tissue impression smear were able to discriminate the majority of patients (92.1%; n = 46) for CL. CONCLUSIONS: In order to highlight the true burden of leishmaniasis in the military personnel, cases of leishmaniasis from military institutes should be recognized as a different entity per say and be included in the national figures so as to depict the real magnitude of the disease burden amongst this high-risk group. KEYWORDS: Clinical; Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Epidemiological; War-torn areas.